Call it whatever you want, but the value of F-Bodies and WS6's are going to start...

Discussion in 'OT Driven' started by Buick Muscle, Jun 26, 2005.

  1. Buick Muscle

    Buick Muscle Guest

    *posted from another thread of mine on another board, so ignore the references to other posters*

    skyrocketing in the next couple of years.

    Well, maybe not skyrocket, but they are definetly going to go back up in value, if not at the very least hold their value.

    Not to rub bad luck in or whichever, but this thread here,
    just goes to prove something that I have been predicting for awhile now. This is just the first in what I feel is going to be more occurences, especially as less car-savvy people start getting into the market.

    After a few more people get burned on fake WS6's and SS, it's only going to drive up the value of the real ones.

    Mark my words. It's going to happen.

    I really think it's going to happen sooner then most people think, and here are a few reasons. Now, this is just off the top of my head, but I'm sure if you actually read into this, then you will start to see alot of valid points coming through.

    First of all, I think somebody eluded earlier in the thread that the F-Bodies would not be valuable, in essence it would be another Fox Body mustang. That would be true, except the F-Body history has differed a bit.

    First of all, the F-Body was never built in the numbers that the Mustang was, so you have less of a number on the road.

    Secondly, the F-Body has horsepower going for it. In the course of history of cars, I can't ever recall a 300+ HP car that was never undesireable. True, the Fox Body mustangs have a huge aftermarket, but their are wayyy too many of them and the horsepower numbers they were putting out isn't really anything to blink at nowadays. Hence, their cheap and easy to mod, which is something the F-Bodies aren't. Now, this could all change if in a few years you see Japanese passenger cars tootling around putting out the same HP numbers as todays F-Body, but I doubt it. It seems like 300HP is the "mark" a car needs to maintain is desirablility.

    Third, is that F-Bodies are getting more and more expensive to fix, which is going to shift the market of these cars more towards the collector aspect then the "cheap HP" aspect that the Mustangs are in nowadays. Ever since these cars were discontinued, the price in parts have skyrocketed. As more of these cars get paid off or taken off of liability, the buyers are going to shift from kids who can barely afford to put gas in the car to somebody who's interest is keeping the car in the garage under a cover.

    Case of example. A friend of mine recently has his Camaro backed into by a truck in a parking lot. The truck was barely moving, and it was a 1 MPH collision, but enough to break the headlight housing, and put a little split in the fender and bumper. The cop who wrote the report up quoted it for 400 dollars. The insurance adjuster quoted it for 1500 dollars.

    That's expensive, and that right there is bound to shift the market for these cars, exspecially as they get older and people start taking them off of full coverage and put them on liability only.

    Fourth, and the last point is that the F-Bodies share one thing in common with all the other valuable muscle cars in the past 40 years. They were basically unwanted at the time of their death, that is because they had no attributes that the people wanted, but they excelled in everythat that people look for in a collector car.

    So in short, I'm not saying that you should go out and buy one in hopes of flipping a quick profit. I doubt that's ever going to happen. But if you have one right now, especially a SS/WS6 edition, I would hang on to it.
  2. NeoPaladin

    NeoPaladin New Member

    Sep 7, 2004
    Likes Received:
    I don't honestly think that the price of used F-bodies is going to go up. That's just naive. The fact of the matter is that these cars will HOLD their value over time, but they're not going to appreciate. A modern SS/WS6 is most definitely not the equivalent of an old SS396/Trans Am. Just from a sheer numbers stand point, as a percentage of cars build, there are far more modern SS's and WS6's.

    I think that from a depreciation standpoint that these cars are, by and large, pretty much done depreciating. Especially the 6-speeds, which people are snapping up like crazy.

    The best example that I can figure is comparing my '04 Grand Prix to my fiancee's '98 Z28 'vert. My '04 GP is 2 years old. It's current estimated book value is about $15K. I paid $27K for it. Quick math shows that I paid approximately 0.37 cents per mile in depreciation (35K miles divided by $13K).

    The Camaro, on the other hand, is now seven years old. Initial price on the car according to the window sticker was, I believe, $27K. I purchased it for $10.5K. However, here's where things get interesting. I could sell the same car that I purchased for $10.5K for $15K today, fairly easily. Why? Low mileage, plus rare options (convertible six-speed, with white top and white leather, est. 1 of less than 5 made with that combo).

    So, does that mean that the Camaro is a good investment? Not neccessarily. It simply means that I got a great deal and was willing to wait for it (had my eye on the car for three months). I knew the rarity of the options, had a good understanding of the price, and when it was right, I grabbed it. The rarity does mean that it will be a collectors car. However, not every F-body will be. Simply a fact.

    My guess would be that six-speeds will do well, especially convertibles with them. SS Convertibles will do well, but hard tops less so, and T-tops will be the least desirable. Rare combos and colors will do very well (you can already see this with Sunset and Hugger Orange. I think the next one to do this will be Cayenne Red Metallic). Blacks, whites and silvers will not do as well due to commonality and will be cheaper.

    Cars like the Formulas will do well, especially WS6 Formulas. 1LE's will do great, naturally, Firehawks, etc.

    It will still be very possible to get a cheap Camaro, as it is today, in the future. The special ones, however, will hold their value and maybe even appreciate a little. However, the sheer number of ones with common options will conspire to keep prices low across the board. You aren't going to get rich buying a Camaro. ;)

    Buy 'em, drive 'em, and love 'em. That's the best advice that I can give anyone about these cars. :bigthumb:
  3. NeoPaladin

    NeoPaladin New Member

    Sep 7, 2004
    Likes Received:
    This is not always true. A car that's well kept will not always appreciate. A great example is, for instance, the early W-bodies. My parents own a fully loaded 1989 Oldsmobile 98. Had the touring sedan package, fully leather interior, power everything, and a CD player (rare in '89). In addition, it has less than 80K miles on it. All in all, a rare car for the options, immaculately taken care of, and yet, they intend on selling it. They're going to be lucky to get their asking price of $1,100, more likely around $750 for it.

    The demand must exist for the price to be there. Demand for those cars simply is not there right now. The market dictates the price. Demand remains relatively high for LS1-type 4th gens, yet you can find an immaculate '97 with the LT1 for around half the price of the '98. The '97s had the same exact interiors as the '98s, the only differences were the motor and exterior, along with minor suspension tweaks. However, is that worth half of the price?

    According to the market, it is. That's why they're selling at a premium.

    As for local markets, they're different everywhere. Here in So Cal, I really want a Trans Am. However, there were not many sold here, so I'd have to pay a premium to get a hold of one, which is why I'm considering a Camaro SS instead.

    Local markets have quirks that are not representative of things as a whole. In BC, it makes sense for convertibles to go for a premium, as they're a bitch to take care of up there. Around California, they often go for a premium as well, but for a different reason.

    Keep in mind, though, not every car will appreciate. And when you adjust for inflation, almost any car except for those that are extremely rare is a losing proposition.

    Good example is an old big-block Corvette, say '67, the most desirable year. With the "most desirable" options, the car could bring about $100,000, which is being very generous. The car would have cost $5925.50, according to the Corvette Buyer's Guide.

    That same money, invested for 38 years in the stock market, would have yielded an average return of 9% per year. Assuming a conservative investment pattern following that model, that $5925.50 would have become $156,650.55. In addition, that does not take into account ANY dividend payments from stocks, which would likely be in the thousands of dollars PER YEAR. You could have also been investing in real estate. If you were to invest in real estate in 1980 (the futhest back year that I could find), you would have made 640% to today. Taking that trend back further to 1967, you would have made 1230% to today (and, you can live in it!). That $5925.50 would be worth $72883.65 today, which doesn't seem like much. However, it doesn't take into account rent that would be collected, which would be huge!

    If you get lucky, then your car may do well. However, investing in the market has always provided better and safer returns, historically. After all, you don't have to worry about your 401K getting stolen, catching on fire or breaking down. At the same time, you can't drive your 401K to work.

    Everyone needs a car. However, nobody should ever confuse their car with their retirement account.

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