Joe Rogan guest says "millions" of kids are on puberty blockers, gets fact checked in real time

Telecast

OT Supporter
Feb 26, 2005
19,016
SoCal
Because a study was done in the U.S that suggests the number is closer to 25% of adolescents stop taking gender affirming hormones within 4 years. I think both studies are insufficient evidence for anything, but if that's your standard. 1 in 4? 25% potentially irreparably sterilized for a decision they made as children? Irreparable harm to the genitalia?


This is the paper I believe you're citing. https://www.researchgate.net/public...adolescence_a_cohort_study_in_the_Netherlands
These treatments are self-perpetuating for many years because of the slow rate of change (transition optimism), the inability to go cold turkey safely, and the momentum of the process - both socially and medically. Often times requiring medication to undo the effects of the gender affirming treatment. The effects of the drugs themselves may be self perpetuating. Many detransitioners believe they were misled or had a false perception of what their transition would accomplish physically when they chose to transition. Some say it took them years to realize that the transition they imagined would never happen.

The problem, ultimately, is that the counterfactual isn't "regret," which is difficult to measure over the span of 3.5 (median) years when a survey of de-transitioners showed that the average duration of their transition is 4.7 years. The counterfactual is... would the patient have been better off had they been treated differently? It would also be helpful to know how those who have symptoms of gender dysphoria in adolescence, but who aren't treated with gender affirming care hormones, turn out. Do they regret not receiving hormones or surgery when they are in their adulthood?

Regardless, the standard for gender affirming care is significantly different between the Dutch "Dutch Protocol" and the US "Informed Consent" approaches. So even if you support transitioning minors, you should at least advocate for a stricter standard of care, especially when you see shocking figures like those below. Twice as many gender dysphoria diagnoses in 2021 compared to 2019? Even more relaxed standards for treatment...

1668062801609.png
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“I’m afraid what we’re getting are false positives and we’ve subjected them to irreversible physical changes,” said Dr Erica Anderson, a clinical psychologist who previously worked at the University of California San Francisco’s gender clinic. “These errors in judgment are fodder for the naysayers – the people who want to eradicate this care.” Anderson, a transgender woman who still treats children with gender dysphoria in her private practice, resigned as president of WPATH’s U.S. chapter last year after her public comments about “sloppy” care prompted the organization to issue a temporary moratorium on board members speaking to the press.


Dr Annelou de Vries, a specialist in child and adolescent psychiatry, is one of the Dutch researchers whose early work established the importance of rigorous patient assessments before starting medical treatment. She said that while she worries about the growing number of children awaiting treatment, the graver sin is to move too fast when puberty blockers and hormones may not be appropriate.

“The existential ethical dilemma in transgender care is between on one hand the (child’s) right for self-determination,” de Vries said. “On the other hand, the do-not-harm principle of medical intervention. Aren’t we intervening medically in a developing body where we don’t know the results of those interventions?” In the United States, in particular, she said, “the transgender right or child’s right seems to be put forward more strongly.” De Vries helped write the section on adolescents in WPATH’s updated Standards of Care. She said she was gratified that language stressing the importance of rigorous patient assessments remained.

In interviews with Reuters, doctors and other staff at 18 gender clinics across the country described their processes for evaluating patients. None described anything like the months-long assessments de Vries and her colleagues adopted in their research.


At most of the clinics, a team of professionals – typically a social worker, a psychologist and a doctor specializing in adolescent medicine or endocrinology – initially meets with the parents and child for two hours or more to get to know the family, their medical history and their goals for treatment. They also discuss the benefits and risks of treatment options. Seven of the clinics said that if they don’t see any red flags and the child and parents are in agreement, they are comfortable prescribing puberty blockers or hormones based on the first visit, depending on the age of the child.
 
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Mperor

I flow like butterbeer on Diagon streets
OT Supporter
Jun 9, 2003
35,759
Seattle
He is not that smart and he is making money of dumb conservatives. That is the reason. Shameless money making. He is a less fringe Alex Jones.
Respectfully disagree. You don't go to Harvard Law, become an editor for Breitbart, and launch your own media company by being a dummy. I suspect is moves are calculated, if not morally suspect.
 

Shibster

don't take it personally, but...
Mar 30, 2001
88,095
Because a study was done in the U.S that suggests the number is closer to 25% of adolescents stop taking gender affirming hormones within 4 years. I think both studies are insufficient evidence for anything, but if that's your standard. 1 in 4? 25% potentially irreparably sterilized for a decision they made as children? Irreparable harm to the genitalia?

These treatments are self-perpetuating for many years because of the slow rate of change (transition optimism), the inability to go cold turkey safely, and the momentum of the process - both socially and medically. Often times requiring medication to undo the effects of the gender affirming treatment. The effects of the drugs themselves may be self perpetuating. Many detransitioners believe they were misled or had a false perception of what their transition would accomplish physically when they chose to transition. Some say it took them years to realize that the transition they imagined would never happen.

The problem, ultimately, is that the counterfactual isn't "regret," which is difficult to measure over the span of (median 3.5 years when a survey of de-transitioners showed that the average duration of their transition is 4.7 years). The counterfactual is... would the patient have been better off had they been treated differently? It would also be helpful to know how those who have symptoms of gender dysphoria in adolescence, but who aren't treated with gender affirming care hormones, turn out. Do they regret no receiving hormones when they are in their adulthood?

Regardless, the standard for gender affirming care is significantly different between the Dutch "Dutch Protocol" and the US "Informed Consent" approaches. So even if you support transitioning minors, you should at least advocate for a stricter standard of care, especially when you see shocking figures like those below. Twice as many gender dysphoria diagnoses in 2021 compared to 2019? Even more relaxed standards for treatment...

View attachment 275154
View attachment 275155







Bro, they're not your genitals.
 

Shibster

don't take it personally, but...
Mar 30, 2001
88,095
Seems like a lazy and disingenuous response to someone advocating against the mistreatment of children with cold hard numbers and facts.
Oh fine. His secondary argument is a sleight of hand: the fact that diagnoses for gender dysphoria are increasing is irrelevant to whether a treatment plan is appropriate. But people are often intrigued by graphs that go up and to the right. That's what most of the hysteria is based on: numbers that are up!

The dominant thought in US bioethics champions autonomy above all, but if we're going to argue over counterfactuals then let's consider real hazard ratios for events that are more significant than "regret". Basically, Telecast has shoved in irrelevant data to back up anecdotes about detrasitioners. It's not worth taking seriously.
 

Kafka

Virtue and Terror
Feb 16, 2007
49,947
America
I would rather have 4,000 underage kids be forced on HRT hormone blockers with irreversible side effects, or have their genitals surgically removed, than have 1 kid have to wait until they are 18 to have informed consent
Wait wtf :roflwtf: that doesn’t sound right either
 

Telecast

OT Supporter
Feb 26, 2005
19,016
SoCal
Oh fine. His secondary argument is a sleight of hand: the fact that diagnoses for gender dysphoria are increasing is irrelevant to whether a treatment plan is appropriate. But people are often intrigued by graphs that go up and to the right. That's what most of the hysteria is based on: numbers that are up!

The dominant thought in US bioethics champions autonomy above all, but if we're going to argue over counterfactuals then let's consider real hazard ratios for events that are more significant than "regret". Basically, Telecast has shoved in irrelevant data to back up anecdotes about detrasitioners. It's not worth taking seriously.
Lets go step by step. You brought up figures for treatment from a specific Dutch facility that has a very strict standard for treatment compared to the U.S. Explain why those figures generalize to the U.S. Especially after I posted an article where one of the scientists whose research is responsible for the "Dutch Protocol" is shocked by the U.S diagnostic standard and fears it will lead to harm. If you support transitioning minors, do you agree that the U.S standard will cause unacceptable harm?
 
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Telecast

OT Supporter
Feb 26, 2005
19,016
SoCal
To me, the craziest shit is when people here quote third-hand accounts from grifting pundits and shock-jock bloggers. No one believes you have any empathy for any of these human beings.
Tell me which third hand accounts, or pundits I am to have quoted?

You can read some first hand accounts yourself.
 
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Shibster

don't take it personally, but...
Mar 30, 2001
88,095
Lets go step by step. You brought up figures for treatment from a specific Dutch facility that has a very strict standard for treatment compared to the U.S. Explain why those figures generalize to the U.S. Especially after I posted an article where one of the scientists whose research is responsible for the "Dutch Protocol" is shocked by the U.S diagnostic standard and fears it will lead to harm. If you support transitioning minors, do you agree that the U.S standard will cause unacceptable harm?
Neither you nor I am qualified to evaluate treatment plans or diagnostic standards. What we can evaluate are the data/outcomes/hazard/survival based on measurable endpoints. Do we know anything about the total mortality statistics?
 

Shibster

don't take it personally, but...
Mar 30, 2001
88,095
Tell me which third hand accounts, or pundits I am to have quoted?

You can read some first hand accounts yourself.

Oof. What you should have said was nothing. This gives away the game.
 
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Shibster

don't take it personally, but...
Mar 30, 2001
88,095
"I'm not posting third-hand anecdotes about destransitioners... I'm posting completely real anonymous first-hand anecdotes from a subreddit solely dedicated to detransitioning"

What a maverick scientist you are
 

ghost.prawn

OT Supporter
May 11, 2006
51,046
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Shibster

don't take it personally, but...
Mar 30, 2001
88,095
You’re quickly going to learn that thinking isn’t really telecast’s thing
Hey, we all contain multitudes. Telecast is infatuated with some platonic ideal of "the scientific method" yet he reliably falls for charlatans talking nonsense. One day, I will get him to realize that his ideal does not exist.
 
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