RIP US Economy v. We shrinking

stevezissou

OT Supporter
Jul 15, 2009
39,376
US
Low unemployment typically precedes a recession. Economy starts to show signs of faltering. Businesses start laying off workforce. Now fewer people have jobs and disposable income to spend. Less economic activity leads to more layoffs…we spiral into recession.
Nah this is how it will play out.

1. Everyone got raises due to inflation, hard to acquire new employees, trying to retain employees.
2. First step is to "stop hiring" this has already happened.
3. Now that we are technically in a "recession" and all these companies are giving crap guidance, they now have cover to layoff employees and get profits back under control due to inflation and all these outrageous wage increases.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Muddy Waters

wait*what

OT Supporter
Mar 8, 2007
93,044
Houston, TX
Wanna be depressed? Pull up Google Earth and check out how humanity has changed the surface of the earth. Look at the midwest, especially Iowa, and how it has been 100% cleared out. The fuck else is there to do? At what point are we going to understand that "manifest destiny" was a success, it has achieved what it was trying to do, and now it's time (well past time) to shift into a different mode?

BUT MUH DOW

And I say this as a new father with a half-decent retirement account. The whole thing fucking sucks. I'm always so ready to vote for anybody who has even the beginning of an idea of what to do about it.

I get a little depressed when I see acres of land and trees cleared out with a sign “FUTURE HOME OF HANDI STOP GAS”

and I see that a lot
 

JacksonWhite

Well-Known Member
Apr 11, 2011
13,029
Realistically this is gonna be a light recession. Everyone has jobs and a lot of home equity (unless you bought in the last 2 years). Earnings are not that bad in general.

Inflation is too high, but probably gets under control within a year
 

gimpshiznit

Totally not Larry
Aug 9, 2003
192,293
Twin Shitties
Nah this is how it will play out.

1. Everyone got raises due to inflation, hard to acquire new employees, trying to retain employees.
2. First step is to "stop hiring" this has already happened.
3. Now that we are technically in a "recession" and all these companies are giving crap guidance, they now have cover to layoff employees and get profits back under control due to inflation and all these outrageous wage increases.
i think some sectors need to do this more than others. We still have a structural employment/population problem regardless of covid.
but yea, you already see the companies that shouldnt have been public in the first place, pause hiring and start laying ppl off. SHOP as of recently
 

stevezissou

OT Supporter
Jul 15, 2009
39,376
US
i think some sectors need to do this more than others. We still have a structural employment/population problem regardless of covid.
but yea, you already see the companies that shouldnt have been public in the first place, pause hiring and start laying ppl off. SHOP as of recently
Cliffs

5Z2Jerz.jpg
 

10dementianal

Well-Known Member
Mar 29, 2007
15,170
I wonder how much automating our ports would help out with food and fuel.

I feel like so many jobs that are currently unionized would be extremely easy to automate relative to other trades and would have such a massive benefit for the country that we could just give the displaced workers UBI at their current rate (adjusted for inflation) and be done with it forever.


This is literally my life right now, except inland. I could rant for days on end how difficult this is. From a port perspective the unions are obviously scared because they think automation will dry up the honey pot, so of course the logical solution is to slow roll it in and do a pseudo automation. Basically take the operators out of the cranes on the shore and put them in a remote operations desk, in parallel work on automating stacking cranes, widespans, remote guided vehicles(bomb carts) to assist in a person hosteling loads to and from the ship. So no you are dealing with a much more complex system that has to tie in everything with software, and planning, along with human avoidance tracking and monitoring. It is a mess because it has been ignored for decades, mainly because you could always throw bodies at the problem.
 

Muddy Waters

Babylon
OT Supporter
Dec 12, 2007
39,268
Southern California
Realistically this is gonna be a light recession. Everyone has jobs and a lot of home equity (unless you bought in the last 2 years). Earnings are not that bad in general.

Inflation is too high, but probably gets under control within a year
Idk bro, maybe not as much equity as you think

 

Simple

Sexy Beatch
Nov 29, 2001
77,192
Edmonton, Alberta
Realistically this is gonna be a light recession. Everyone has jobs and a lot of home equity (unless you bought in the last 2 years). Earnings are not that bad in general.

Inflation is too high, but probably gets under control within a year
only thing I see being an issue is if tech bros are laid off in spades and form a niche section of unemployment
 
  • Like
Reactions: Good Ol' Gil

saabguy

Saab-free since 2013. Mortgage guru
OT Supporter
Aug 11, 2003
22,467
Loserville. Population: 1
Nah this is how it will play out.

1. Everyone got raises due to inflation, hard to acquire new employees, trying to retain employees.
2. First step is to "stop hiring" this has already happened.
3. Now that we are technically in a "recession" and all these companies are giving crap guidance, they now have cover to layoff employees and get profits back under control due to inflation and all these outrageous wage increases.
1D07D680-3D19-49A4-AC0A-8F8FFFBDF87E.jpeg
 
  • Wow
Reactions: majesty

SquirtRussel

OT Supporter
Oct 8, 2004
32,531
San Francisco
This is literally my life right now, except inland. I could rant for days on end how difficult this is. From a port perspective the unions are obviously scared because they think automation will dry up the honey pot, so of course the logical solution is to slow roll it in and do a pseudo automation. Basically take the operators out of the cranes on the shore and put them in a remote operations desk, in parallel work on automating stacking cranes, widespans, remote guided vehicles(bomb carts) to assist in a person hosteling loads to and from the ship. So no you are dealing with a much more complex system that has to tie in everything with software, and planning, along with human avoidance tracking and monitoring. It is a mess because it has been ignored for decades, mainly because you could always throw bodies at the problem.
Keeping the same workforce and trying to double productivity with automation sounds great too
 

10dementianal

Well-Known Member
Mar 29, 2007
15,170
Keeping the same workforce and trying to double productivity with automation sounds great too


Europe is doing it now, problem is unpacking everything is a good 5 to 10 year process. Not going to lie it is fucking awesome, the cranes basically can do 75 to 80% of the work and the final stuff can be done supervised by a person or done manually. Even at this level 1 person could run 6 to 2 cranes based on volume. It is absolutely scalable, but again people are getting in the way.
 
  • Like
Reactions: SquirtRussel

Nikuk

This simulation needs a reboot
OT Supporter
Jun 24, 2005
15,487
Buffalo, NY. Again.
Wanna be depressed? Pull up Google Earth and check out how humanity has changed the surface of the earth. Look at the midwest, especially Iowa, and how it has been 100% cleared out. The fuck else is there to do? At what point are we going to understand that "manifest destiny" was a success, it has achieved what it was trying to do, and now it's time (well past time) to shift into a different mode?

BUT MUH DOW

And I say this as a new father with a half-decent retirement account. The whole thing fucking sucks. I'm always so ready to vote for anybody who has even the beginning of an idea of what to do about it.
You have that "but muh dow" to thank for that half decent retirement though.

You want to shift into a different mode? You have to give up the idea of never ending economic growth, or at least the idea of exponential profiteering.

Ready? Go.
 
  • Like
Reactions: oftenly

SquirtRussel

OT Supporter
Oct 8, 2004
32,531
San Francisco
Europe is doing it now, problem is unpacking everything is a good 5 to 10 year process. Not going to lie it is fucking awesome, the cranes basically can do 75 to 80% of the work and the final stuff can be done supervised by a person or done manually. Even at this level 1 person could run 6 to 2 cranes based on volume. It is absolutely scalable, but again people are getting in the way.
Cool appreciate the info. That stuff fascinates me tbh.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

About Us

  • Please do not post anything that violates any Local, State, Federal or International Laws. Your privacy is protected. You have the right to be forgotten. Site funded by advertising, link monetization and member support.
OT v15.11.1 Copyright © 2000-2022 Offtopic.com
Served by fx.offtopic.com

Online statistics

Members online
362
Guests online
116
Total visitors
478

Forum statistics

Threads
75,927
Messages
7,381,778
Members
87,002
Latest member
mohamedali2022