RIP US Economy v. We shrinking

Camaro3800

I show up once a year
Aug 14, 2000
4,518
So Cal
Who could have foreseen that shutting down a bunch of businesses and then printing money and handing it out like candy would have had a negative effect on the economy?
It contributed for sure but I don’t think we’ll ever know how much.
 

gimpshiznit

Totally not Larry
Aug 9, 2003
193,124
Twin Shitties
Not entirely true either. There were economists at our central bank sounding the alarms prior to the last recession.



Correct. And it was this economic shutdown, economic regulation, and central bank policies, that created the current economic climate of significant inflation, massive supply chain disruptions, a more fragile workforce, and an overall skewed supply/demand curve that i'm talking about. This was preventable since it took government/fed action to create.



False. Most key economic indicators projected continued growth from 2020-2025, which is why nearly every model from every source projected growth prior to government policies employed in covid. A low rate of unemployment itself does not indicate a definite looming recession, we've had low unemployment for years without recessions. But again, what we are experiencing right now, is directly due to our governments and their central banks actions throughout covid.
key indicators at the beginning of 2019. they shifted throughout the year. stop this nonsense. employment literally peaked 9/30/19
 
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Mercennarius

Ultra Member
OT Supporter
Jun 25, 2009
1,440
key indicators at the beginning of 2019. they shifted throughout the year. stop this nonsense. employment literally peaked 9/30/19

🤦‍♂️I'm not sure I can even take your argument seriously. It has no basis in economic theory. Economists from both private and public institutions not only did not project this recession prior to 2020 (because the indicators for it didn't exist), but they agree that what is causing our current recession were events that took place by our own governments. This is only disputed by ideologues, not actual economists.
 

gimpshiznit

Totally not Larry
Aug 9, 2003
193,124
Twin Shitties
🤦‍♂️I'm not sure I can even take your argument seriously. It has no basis in economic theory. Economists from both private and public institutions not only did not project this recession prior to 2020 (because the indicators for it didn't exist), but they agree that what is causing our current recession were events that took place by our own governments. This is only disputed by ideologues, not actual economists.
lol employment rates have no basis in economic theory? christ
 

Mercennarius

Ultra Member
OT Supporter
Jun 25, 2009
1,440
lol employment rates have no basis in economic theory? christ

No. The idea that a low unemployment rate in 2019 is what led to the current economic environment. No economists were looking at employment rates in late 2019 and going "Man, were going to have record high inflation, negative GDP, massive supply chain issues, etc.". They were literally saying, "We expect more growth over the next few years". That changed after Q1 2020. Mandates to shutdown the broad economy, regulations weakening the work force, disrupting supply chains, and increasing the money supply by 40% is what caused this recession. There are obviously other factors at play, there always is, but the primary reason we are where we are today is due to government/central bank actions since COVID.
 

gimpshiznit

Totally not Larry
Aug 9, 2003
193,124
Twin Shitties
No. The idea that a low unemployment rate in 2019 is what led to the current economic environment. No economists were looking at employment rates in late 2019 and going "Man, were going to have record high inflation, negative GDP, massive supply chain issues, etc.". They were literally saying, "We expect more growth over the next few years". That changed after Q1 2020. Mandates to shutdown the broad economy, regulations weakening the work force, disrupting supply chains, and increasing the money supply by 40% is what caused this recession. There are obviously other factors at play, there always is, but the primary reason we are where we are today is due to government/central bank actions since COVID.
lol wat? that isnt even close to what i said you nimrod
 

Jasonj

OT Supporter
Nov 26, 2006
12,084
Atlanta
well this is not true. we were having liquidity events in 2018 and by 3Q 2019 employment peaked and many models were pointing toward recession beginning Q1 2020 before covid

I can't remember exactly, but don't you work in some financial/market related field?
 

Mercennarius

Ultra Member
OT Supporter
Jun 25, 2009
1,440
lol wat? that isnt even close to what i said you nimrod

iiPNJu3.png
 

gimpshiznit

Totally not Larry
Aug 9, 2003
193,124
Twin Shitties
i understand you dont get the difference. let me break this down for you....


the Fed saw slowing growth in 2019 and started slashing rates way before covid hit. the employment mkt also peaked in 9.30. this rates inverted bigly.
i am not saying those factors caused the current recession...my argument was we were likely headed into a recession immediately before covid hit, and we have the data to suggest it.
 
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Mercennarius

Ultra Member
OT Supporter
Jun 25, 2009
1,440
read my posts

I quoted your posts. You started this saying economic indicators, specifically unemployment rates, in 2019 were pointing to a recession in Q1 2020. That is what you said. That is false. You might find one or two obscure predictions, but 99% of economists were not projecting this prior to COVID. As I said from the beginning, THIS recession, is predominately government/central bank created due to their actions since Q1 2020.
 

gimpshiznit

Totally not Larry
Aug 9, 2003
193,124
Twin Shitties
I quoted your posts. You started this saying economic indicators, specifically unemployment rates, in 2019 were pointing to a recession in Q1 2020. That is what you said. That is false. You might find one or two obscure predictions, but 99% of economists were not projecting this prior to COVID. As I said from the beginning, THIS recession, is predominately government/central bank created due to their actions since Q1 2020.
stop....the fed started slashing rates and the curve inverted. take your L and go back to whatever creepy site you post on where people get impressed by your sophomoric take on fed policy. Fed doesnt cut rates if they think economic growth is healthy and expanding. they did it because we were having a serious liquidity situation in the REPO mkt and we were at full employment.



curve inversion in 3Q 19


8hv6pqA.jpg



fed funds rates in 2019

Laca3Om.jpg
 

Mercennarius

Ultra Member
OT Supporter
Jun 25, 2009
1,440
i understand you dont get the difference. let me break this down for you....


the Fed saw slowing growth in 2019 and started slashing rates way before covid hit. the employment mkt also peaked in 9.30. this rates inverted bigly.
i am not saying those factors caused the current recession...my argument was we were likely headed into a recession immediately before covid hit, and we have the data to suggest it.

I can't find a single economist that made this assessment/prediction in 2019. As early as January 2020 major economists were making predictions for Q1 2020 to be as high as 2.7% growth, with similar projections for the YOY. Also, I made it clear from the beginning I was referring to THIS recession, not a hypothetical recession that never happened.

 

gimpshiznit

Totally not Larry
Aug 9, 2003
193,124
Twin Shitties
I can't find a single economist that made this assessment/prediction in 2019. As early as January 2020 major economists were making predictions for Q1 2020 to be as high as 2.7% growth, with similar projections for the YOY. Also, I made it clear from the beginning I was referring to THIS recession, not a hypothetical recession that never happened.

that is because you dont know any economists.
 

gimpshiznit

Totally not Larry
Aug 9, 2003
193,124
Twin Shitties
again, im not saying a recession was 100% for sure...but indicators were showing economic erosion and in my opinion we were headed into one regardless of covid.
 

Mercennarius

Ultra Member
OT Supporter
Jun 25, 2009
1,440
🤦‍♂️. Now you're attempting to make a strawman argument.

The fed made it clear after their October 2019 meeting they were not going to drop the rate anymore, and didn't until COVID hit. The Fed stated in Q4 2019 the US economy was "Strong", and no one was projecting a recession in 2020 like you implied. You're back pedaling now. THIS recession, was primarily created by actions taken AFTER Q1 2020.


stop....the fed started slashing rates and the curve inverted. take your L and go back to whatever creepy site you post on where people get impressed by your sophomoric take on fed policy. Fed doesnt cut rates if they think economic growth is healthy and expanding. they did it because we were having a serious liquidity situation in the REPO mkt and we were at full employment.



curve inversion in 3Q 19


8hv6pqA.jpg



fed funds rates in 2019

Laca3Om.jpg
 

gimpshiznit

Totally not Larry
Aug 9, 2003
193,124
Twin Shitties
🤦‍♂️. Now you're attempting to make a strawman argument.

The fed made it clear after their October 2019 meeting they were not going to drop the rate anymore, and didn't until COVID hit. The Fed stated in Q4 2019 the US economy was "Strong", and no one was projecting a recession in 2020 like you implied. You're back pedaling now. THIS recession, was primarily created by actions taken AFTER Q1 2020.

Smh I don’t think you’ve read a single post I made
 

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