Discussion in 'OT Technology' started by Oh its me 20, Mar 8, 2008.
fb = 15 billion
digg = 300 million
Anyone else here work in the industry?
not for a while
when sites stop making money
You have VCs funding all these companies with large amounts of money. They aren't generating profits, but using the money that is behind them.
It's still not even comparable to the 2000 bubble. Will shit die down a little? maybe, but shit like this is going to continue
Googles slowed down alot of late I dont think this bubble will burst itll be a slow leak to a sustainable plataeu
This isn't new. Companies need money to build a product. I would say it takes less capital to start an internet web startup, and thus less barriers to entry, so we're seeing a lot of "me too" companies pop up. A lot of these "web 2.0" companies start without any ideas for monetization, which I think is fine. I don't think we've hit the revenue models that are going to succeed in the long run yet. Contextual text ads are working for Google, but they aren't the end-all.
And here's an obligatory link to The Richter Scales: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6IQ_FOCE6I&eurl=http://www.richterscales.com/
I agree with the basics of what you're saying, but you have guys investing tons of money into companies that have yet be profitable. Granted you won't be for the first few years, but do you really think FB is worth 15b? Instead of looking to see if these companies actually have a long term revenue model, they turn it into a pissing contest of who can raise the most capital.
meh, i think VC's are investing in better sites this time. Not investing 50 million dollars in some site that sells organic dogfood to starving kids in ethiopia
Of course there are still stupid investments, but there are in all fields
It's not a bubble. It might slow down, but there will be no burst. Web 2.0 & social bookmarking/interfacing sites are the wave of the future. The internet isn't aimed towards hightech anymore.
The web is still new and will presumably be a viable business platform for the predictable range of forever, so VC's will always be back, just like after "1.0". Over time, as they perfect their strategies and the risks of investing get lower and lower, these bubble/burst cycles will level off, or regress towards the mean. Though what this means is that eventually, being a web startup will be just as exciting as starting up a new local pet or antique store.
This chart doesn't suggest that there will be no profits in the future for web companies, but that the avg. profit per dollar invested will level out and become essentially standardized. This could be 5-6x other industries still, or it may level out at 1-2x; who knows, and who cares.
People with great ideas don't need to worry about whether there's a bust or bubble in the works-these things don't affect them because they have the creativity, determination, and willpower to find a way to make their ideas work. It's the people leaching off of trends that will die off or thrive in each.
what is the break in the line after the burst 3.0?
To accommodate for however many cycles it goes through before leveling out. I can't predict when, and I doubt it will after the third cycle.
I'm predicting 2.5 years. Why? 5 reasons:
a) Google's ads are going down the shitter very quickly, the marketers are starting to notice that their clicks don't transform into sales
b) The big companies that have been buying up these no-business model start ups are starting to feel a money crunch. Look at Google their stock is in the crapper.
c) All those VCs that have invested into start ups with no viable business will be starting their 5-year exit strategies, when they notice that their return on investment is crappy they'll cut down on $$$
d) Recession, yes I know everyone says its not going to happen, but it will. When recession hits big companies will freeze acquisitions. VCs will freeze investments. Small companies won't get bank loans.
e) Overseas investment, with U.S. in recession, the VCs will want to hedge their bets and will invest their cash in places like China and India.
Facebook wasn't actually valued at 15 billion. The stake that Microsoft bought was more than just a stake, it was also a business deal that came with a lot of other benefits that account for a significant portion of what they paid.